Last updated: August 18, 2026
If your flight is delayed three hours or more, or cancelled less than 14 days before departure, you could be entitled to up to £520 (€600) under EU261 (Regulation (EC) No 261/2004) and UK261, but only when the cause is within the airline's control. This summer, SkyRefund's forecast puts Paris, London, Amsterdam, Athens, and Spain's congested hubs at the highest disruption risk for July and August 2026. Below is where the trouble is most likely to land and how it compares with last summer. Check any flight in two minutes with our free compensation calculator.
This is a forward-looking risk ranking for the July–August 2026 peak, grouped by where the pressure originates. It is grounded in EUROCONTROL network and delay data, which, unlike airline-specific sources, captures every operator, including the low-cost carriers that now make up the largest share of European flying, supported by Eurostat and ACI Europe traffic figures. Risk legend: Severe, High.
| # | Airport / airspace | Risk | Why it is exposed (official basis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris — CDG & Orly | Severe | France is the single largest source of Europe's air-traffic-control delay (its provider DSNA caused about a third of all delay minutes over the past decade). Add a 24-hour ground-staff strike at CDG, Orly and Le Bourget on 18 June and the new EES border checks. |
| 2 | London — Heathrow & Gatwick | Severe | EUROCONTROL's most arrival-restricted airport (Heathrow), with Gatwick close behind, both running at the edge of capacity. The UK is also the most fuel-exposed major market for cost-driven schedule cuts. |
| 3 | Amsterdam Schiphol | Severe | Handles the most aircraft movements of any EU airport (around 456,000 flights a year, per Eurostat), so it runs with almost no slack. Slot-capped, with one of Europe's sharpest recent punctuality declines, now absorbing Middle East route changes. |
| 4 | Athens & the Greek islands | Severe | Athens control centre was the single biggest source of en-route delay in Europe in spring 2026; Athens was also the worst airport for ATC delay last summer, and island airports such as Heraklion face capacity bottlenecks. |
| 5 | Barcelona, Madrid & Palma | Severe | Barcelona control centre is Europe's second-biggest en-route delay source and Spain drove roughly a third of all en-route delay this spring. These are also Europe's fastest-growing major airports, adding traffic into the most congested airspace. |
| 6 | Lisbon & Porto | High | Both are long-standing fixtures on EUROCONTROL's airport-delay list, and Portugal's repeated nationwide strike action lands directly on them through the summer. |
| 7 | Frankfurt & Munich | High | Germany's provider DFS is the second-largest delay source after France. Frankfurt carries chronic capacity pressure and recurring summer storms. |
Sources: EUROCONTROL European Aviation Overview and All-Causes Delay reporting; IATA analysis of EUROCONTROL data; Eurostat and ACI Europe traffic data; official and airline strike notices to mid-June 2026.
Also worth watching: Rome Fiumicino and Milan Malpensa are one of Europe's fastest-growing major airports (Eurostat recorded the biggest passenger increase of any top-10 hub), so congestion risk is rising even though it does not yet rank among the worst for delays. Additional disruptions such as the expected 24-hour ground-handling strike on June 26th, 2026 further affect the operations on both airports leading to delays and cancellations.
Belgrade, outside the EU, has repeatedly posted some of the lowest punctuality in the region and is worth checking if your route connects there.
Summer 2025 was, against expectations, an improvement on the year before. EUROCONTROL's season review reported arrival punctuality of about 71%, up from 65% in 2024, with en-route flow-management delays down by roughly a third. The damage was concentrated in sharp, one-off events rather than a steady grind, most clearly the French air-traffic-control strike of 3–4 July 2025, which affected over a million passengers. Two things carry into 2026: EUROCONTROL is explicit that the underlying problem is a structural shortage of controllers that cannot be fixed quickly, and the early-2026 weeks have run mixed against 2025 rather than cleanly better.
This is the dominant driver, and it is mostly about airspace rather than any single airport. EUROCONTROL's spring 2026 data shows the control centres generating the most en-route delay were Athens, Barcelona, and Thessaloniki, with French centres close behind. Over the longer run, IATA's analysis of EUROCONTROL figures attributes about a third of all of Europe's delay minutes since 2015 to France's provider DSNA and a further fifth to Germany's DFS.
Because a delay in French or Spanish airspace also hits the overflights passing through it, this structural shortage turns one bad day into a network-wide bottleneck. You can see which hubs carry the most traffic in our guide to the busiest airports in Europe and which have historically been the worst in our most delayed airports in Europe ranking.
Strikes remain a real risk, but the headline Spanish air-traffic-control strike has faded as an operational threat: a near-total minimum-service order has kept flights largely on schedule, and by mid-June no active strike disruption was being recorded. What is still live in Spain is ground-handling action at major airports, including Madrid and Barcelona.
Elsewhere, a wildcat air-traffic-control strike in Belgium on 2–3 June effectively closed Belgian airspace, and a 24-hour ground-staff strike is set to hit Paris CDG, Orly, and Le Bourget on 18 June. The compensation consequences depend entirely on who is striking.
By early May, EUROCONTROL put average jet fuel at about $3.94 a gallon, still around 1.75 times pre-military actions in the Middle East in late February 2026, and noted airlines had cut roughly 2% of planned May–June flights. As of mid-June, the conflict was not resolved, but the feared fuel shortage did not materialise. A cancellation made to manage fuel costs is a commercial decision within the airline's control, which has direct compensation implications.
Alongside the official forecast, each cluster notes the route that generated the most compensation claims in SkyRefund's own summer 2025 data. These reflect where claims are concentrated in our caseload, which is shaped by route traffic volume.
France generates more air-traffic-control delay than any other country, so its airports are exposed twice over: directly, when Charles de Gaulle and Orly hit their own capacity caps, and indirectly, because a French dispute delays the overflights crossing French airspace.
A 24-hour ground-staff strike was scheduled at CDG, Orly and Le Bourget on 18 June, and the new EU Entry/Exit System, effective April 2026, is adding biometric checks and longer queues for non-EU travellers. In SkyRefund's summer 2025 claims, the most-claimed Paris route was Charles de Gaulle to New York JFK, with Orly to Tunis and Paris to Bangkok also recurring.
Heathrow is the airport EUROCONTROL most often flags for arrival restrictions, with Gatwick close behind. Both run near the edge of their runway capacity, and the UK is the most fuel-exposed major market, putting UK departures first in line for cost-driven schedule cuts. UK departures fall under UK261, which mirrors EU261 on amounts and thresholds, so the maths is the same up to £520 (€600).
London Heathrow to New York JFK was the most-disrupted long-haul route in our summer 2025 data (the fourth most-claimed route overall), with Heathrow to Delhi and Cochin and Gatwick's leisure routes to Tunis and Dalaman close behind; nearby Luton's Balkan corridors, such as Tirana to Luton, were among the most-claimed routes of all.
Schiphol earns a higher place this year on the numbers. Eurostat shows it handles more aircraft movements than any other airport in the European Union, around 456,000 a year, ahead of even Paris CDG, so it operates with almost no spare capacity to absorb a bad weather day or a wave of re-routed traffic.
It is slot-capped, has posted one of Europe's sharpest recent punctuality declines, and is now absorbing knock-on effects from Middle East route changes. Schiphol's claims spread across many routes rather than concentrating; the most-claimed single pairing in our summer 2025 data was Amsterdam to Manchester.
Greece is the cluster most under-appreciated by travellers. The Athens control centre was the single largest source of en-route delay in Europe this spring, Athens was the worst airport for air-traffic-control delay last summer, and island airports such as Herakleion run into hard capacity limits at peak season, when there is no road or rail alternative if a flight is cancelled.
In June 2026, a number of Ryanair passengers missed an Athens to London Luton flight after long passport-control queues caused by the EU's new Entry/Exit System (EES). The plane left around an hour late once their bags were offloaded, and the airport now advises arriving two to three hours early for non-Schengen departures. A flight missed this way sits outside the airline's control, so it will not normally qualify for compensation under EU261, though your right to care still applies if the flight is delayed or cancelled.
Athens to New York JFK led out Greek claims in summer 2025, while the islands surfaced mainly on leisure routes, with Herakleion and Chania to and from Belgrade among the most-claimed.
Spain ranks high for structural reasons rather than the strike. The Barcelona control centre is Europe's second-biggest source of en-route delay, and these are the continent's fastest-growing major airports, adding flights into already saturated airspace. Palma in particular is a long-standing fixture on EUROCONTROL's airport-delay list because of summer storms and limited capacity. On island routes the lack of a re-routing alternative makes the right to care more important.
Barcelona to Belgrade was the most-claimed Spanish route in our summer 2025 data, and the second most-claimed route overall, part of a wider band of Barcelona–Balkans leisure traffic; Palma and Málaga to London Gatwick also featured.
Lisbon and Porto are both regulars on EUROCONTROL's airport-delay list, and Portugal's repeated nationwide strike action lands directly on them. In Germany, the air-traffic-control provider is the second-largest delay source after France; Frankfurt carries chronic capacity pressure and summer storms, with Munich adding further strain at the height of the season.
In our summer 2025 claims, Porto to Paris Orly was the most-claimed Portuguese route; German claims, by contrast, spread too thinly across many routes for a single pairing to dominate.
Knowing which airports are risky is only half the story; the cause of your disruption decides whether you are paid. Compensation amounts depend on flight distance, not ticket price, under both EU261 and UK261:
| 3+ hours | Distance | Example flight |
|---|---|---|
| £220 (€250) | Under 1,500 km | London → Paris (343 km) |
| £350 (€400) | 1,500 – 3,500 km | Edinburgh → Berlin (1,730 km) |
| £350 (€400) | Over 3,500 km (in EU) | Lisbon → Stockholm (3,608 km) |
| £520 (€600) | Over 3,500 km (departing EU) | Frankfurt → New York (6,202 km) |
Cancellations follow a 14-day rule: told 14 days or more before departure, no compensation is due; closer to the date, it usually is. The decisive factor is always the cause: strikes by an airline's own crew and cost-driven cancellations are claimable, while ATC strikes and airspace congestion are not.
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With over 8 years of legal experience, we help passengers worldwide exercise their rights and claim the compensation they are entitled to. SkyRefund works on a no-win, no-fee basis, and our standard fee is 35% of the total compensation amount.
To get started, use the flight compensation calculator. Once you have determined your eligibility you can submit a claim and leave it in the hands of the SkyRefund team.
On SkyRefund's forecast, the highest risk sits with Paris (CDG and Orly), London (Heathrow and Gatwick), Amsterdam Schiphol, Athens, and Spain's congested hubs of Barcelona, Madrid, and Palma. The ranking is grounded in EUROCONTROL network data plus Eurostat and ACI Europe traffic figures, and reflects air-traffic-control capacity, congestion and strikes rather than any single statistic.
No cash compensation because an air-traffic-control strike is an extraordinary circumstance outside the airline's control. The airline must still give you a refund or re-routing and cover meals and a hotel where needed. If it's an airline's crew strike, that is different and compensation of £220 to £520 (€250 to €600) can apply.
Jet fuel is still well above pre-crisis prices, so some airlines have trimmed schedules to manage costs, but the feared supply shortage did not materialise. A flight cancelled as a commercial decision to manage fuel costs is within the airline's control, so compensation can be due.
Enter your flight details into SkyRefund's free compensation calculator. It tells you in minutes whether your delay, cancellation or denied boarding qualifies and how much you could receive, on a no-win, no-fee basis.
This forecast of where disruption is most likely is grounded in official EUROCONTROL network and delay data, which covers every airline including low-cost carriers, supported by Eurostat and ACI Europe traffic figures and IATA and EIA fuel data. The most-claimed routes noted per cluster come from SkyRefund's own summer 2025 claims (1 June–31 August) and are included as illustration only.
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